Hey, all. I want to apologize in advance for this being a shorter version of the Tribune. My wife and I both tested positive for strep throat, and my little guy has been battling a fever off and on this week. He seems to be turning the corner, which is great, but I just haven’t been as able to devote time to this week’s Tribune like I wanted.
However, all the stats are updated are there are quite a few blurbs still, so I hope this remains useful for you this week.
As a reminder, there is (hopefully) tons of useful information for free subscribers, but I put even more behind the paywall. In recent weeks that has led to long discussions about Matt Wallner, Matt McLain, Nolan Jones, and a few other players that have popped. I’d encourage you to check it out.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on the new structure so that I can make this the best product it can be. As always, my goal is to give you as much actionable fantasy insight as I can so that you can make decisions for your team that you feel will help you be competitive in your leagues.
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Hitting Leaders (Week of May 22nd)
Hard Hit Baseballs
J.P. Crawford, SEA - 14 hard-hit baseballs (66.7%)
Bo Bichette, TOR - 13 hard-hit baseballs (52%)
Julio Rodriguez, SEA - 13 hard-hit baseballs (65%)
Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL - 12 hard-hit baseballs (54.5%)
Andrew Vaughn, CWS - 11 hard-hit baseballs (57.9%)
Alex Bregman, HOU - 11 hard-hit baseballs (57.9%)
Adley Rutschman, BAL - 11 hard-hit baseballs (57.9%)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR - 11 hard-hit baseballs (45.8%)
Jorge Soler, MIA - 11 hard-hit baseballs (50%)
When I was on the FTN Baseball podcast with Sammy Reid and Vlad Sedler we talked about Alex Bregman’s slow start and how there was nothing in his metrics that suggested that he was having some legitimate regression. The issue is simply that Bregman is not actually the hitter he was in 2019. He’s a 20 HR bat in an offense that has taken a step back. He’ll remain valuable, but he doesn’t steal bases and doesn’t have major power upside, but expect the .270 average to be there at the end.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Home Runs
Jorge Soler, MIA - 5 home runs
Ty France, SEA - 3 home runs
Pete Alonso, NYM - 3 home runs
Elias Diaz, COL - 3 home runs
Michael Conforto, SF - 3 home runs
Jose Siri, TB - 3 home runs
Marcell Ozuna, ATL - 3 home runs
Jorge Soler is a perfect example of a streaky player that can be tough to gauge in fantasy leagues. We seem to overreact to every hot or cold two week stretch, and social media has always made that worse with people posting about a “change” that’s over a two week sample size. If you look at Soler’s rolling graphs on Statcast, you can see tat his whole career is basically made up of hot and cold streaks. One thing to point out is that Soler has upped his fly ball rate by 10% this year, which has likely contributed to this massive home run binge. He could certainly push for 35 bombs if he stays healthy.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
RBI
Jorge Soler, MIA - 8 RBI
Rougned Odor, SD - 8 RBI
Michael Conforto, SF - 8 RBI
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR - 7 RBI
Josh Jung, TEX - 7 RBI
Bo Bichette, TOR - 7 RBI
Zack Short, DET - 7 RBI
It’s nice to see Michael Conforto back and producing. He’s pulling the ball a career-high amount and barreling the ball a lot. He’s not going to be the Conforto of the 2020 season, but he’s always been a hitter with a good understanding of the strike zone who is now playing basically every day again. A final line of .265 with 25 HRs feels feasible for Conforto, while hitting in the middle of the Giants lineup.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stolen Bases
Taylor Walls, TB - 5 SBs
Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL - 4 SBs
Wander Franco, TB - 4 SBs
Willi Castro, MIN - 3 SBs
Bryson Stott, PHI - 3 SBs
Esteury Ruiz, OAK - 3 SBs
Wander Franco has become a bit of a spark plug for a debate about fantasy “experts” (which is a really annoying term people should stop using) and how they could possibly have ranked him so low this season. The truth of the matter is that Wander was ranked highly by some based solely on prospect pedigree and what some people HOPED he would be. His career high stolen bases in the minor leagues is 18. He didn’t run much at all in his first two major league seaons, so expecting him to run like this was purely wishcasting. There was nothing in his profile to suggest 20 stolen bases before the mid-way point. You can say all you want that he was an all-world prospect but every fantasy manager/writer has to decide if they want to draft based purely on hope or draft based on what past history and usage tells us. Wander trending to hit .300 with 17-20 home runs makes total sense and is what many would have expected, so it’s just the stolen bases that are the outlier.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Pitching Leaders (Week of May 22nd)
SwStr% (Starting Pitchers)
Luis Castillo, SEA - 20.8% SwStr%
Spencer Strider, ATL - 20.2% SwStr%
Tommy Henry, ARI - 19.4% SwStr%
Aaron Nola, PHI - 19.2% SwStr%
Jesus Luzardo, MIA - 18.7% SwStr%
Alex Faedo, DET - 18.1% SwStr%
Tanner Houck, BOS - 18.1% SwStr%
Jamie Barria, LA - 17.2% SwStr%
Logan Gilbert, SEA - 16.9% SwStr%
Eduardo Rodriguez, DET - 16.7% SwStr%
I’ve weirdly been in on Alex Faedo since he debuted last year. I know there’s nothing particularly inspiring about him, but I think he’s a pretty useful deep league SP option. So far this season, in 21.2 innings, he has a 3.61 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA, and 25.6% K-BB%. Hmm, OK. We like that. His command has been incredible and his slider has been lights out with a 25.9% SwStr% and 37.5% CSW. He’s throwing it slower this year with a bit more drop, so maybe that’s helping to create more separation with the fastball. He also added more movement overall to his changeup, which has helped it reduce hard contact so far this season. I think he’ll settle in below 9.00 K/9 and I don’t quite buy the 3.37 SIERA, but I think he’ll hover around a 4.00 ERA which isn’t bad for deeper leagues.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stuff+ (Starting Pitchers)
Corbin Burnes, MIL - 139 Stuff+
Gerrit Cole, NYY - 127 Stuff+
Spencer Strider, ATL - 125 Stuff+
Hunter Greene, CIN - 124 Stuff+
Marcus Stroman, CHC - 124 Stuff+
Bobby Miller, LAD - 122 Stuff+
Luis Medina, OAK - 122 Stuff+
Bryce Miller, SEA - 120 Stuff+
Logan Gilbert, SEA - 119 Stuff+
Yu Darvish, SD - 118 Stuff+
Bobby Miller obviously figures to be the big ticket waiver item this weekend. I’ve written about him a bit before, but I liked what I saw in his first start. He appears to have a true four pitch arsenal and while none of his pitches really missed bats on Tuesday, he faced a good lineup. I liked the actions I saw from the slider and changeup and think there is potential for more swing-and-miss when he gets a weaker opponent. Don’t hope for Spencer Strider here, but Miller is certainly ahead of Gavin Stone for a full-time spot in the rotation, and I’d put him in the Tanner Bibee range if you’re trying to decide how much to spend.
Saves
Pierce Johnson, COL - 3 saves
Paul Sewald, SEA - 2 saves
Josh Hader, MIL - 2 saves
Emmanuel Clase, CLE - 2 saves
Giovanny Gallegos, STL - 2 saves
Ryan Pressly, HOU - 2 saves
Craig Kimbrel, PHI - 2 saves
Kyle Finnegan, WAS - 2 saves
Even though Pierce Johnson appears on this list, the Rockies closer has struggled of late and has a 6.53 ERA on the season with a 12.9% walk rate. That’s why I think we need to be talking about Justin Lawrence. Lawrence appears to be next in line and has a 2.33 ERA with a 17.6% K-BB%. He throws a sweeper but because of his low arm slot where he kind of slings the ball, he’s able to manipulate the slider so some are slower and have far more sweeper while others are harder and tighter. As a result, it’s almost like he throws too sliders. That pitch, and is sinker, both hold up well in the altitude of Coors, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he takes this job and runs with it.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Behind the paywall you’ll find:
Additional breakdowns on hitters listed above
Breakdowns on prospect call-ups (like Bobby Miller and Nolan Jones)
Top Waiver wire hitter pick-up
Top Waiver wire pitcher pick-up
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