Samulski Sunday Tribune - Week of May 22nd
This week's leaders to help you earn next week's stats
Honestly, with working my full-time job, plus parenting, plus writing Rotoballer content, I just haven’t yet been able to not feel like I’m swimming upstream, so these intros are going to be really short.
I’ve enjoyed philosophizing in the past and might again in the future, but for now we’ll just get you right to the content.
As a reminder, there is (hopefully) tons of useful information for free subscribers, but I put even more behind the pay wall and in recent weeks that has led to long discussions about Ezequiel Duran, Matt McLain, Whit Merrifield, James Paxton, and a few other players that have really popped. I’d encourage you to check it out.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on the new structure so that I can make this the best product it can be. As always, my goal is to give you as much actionable fantasy insight as I can so that you can make decisions for your team that you feel will help you be competitive in your leagues.
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Hitting Leaders (Week of May 8th)
Hard Hit Baseballs
Kyle Tucker, HOU - 14 hard-hit baseballs (82.4%)
Matt Olson, ATL - 13 hard-hit baseballs (86.7%)
Jake Burger, CWS - 11 hard-hit baseballs (73.3%)
Jeimer Candelario, WAS - 11 hard-hit baseballs (52.4%)
Marcus Semien, TEX - 11 hard-hit baseballs (50%)
Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL - 11 hard-hit baseballs (73.3%)
Shohei Ohtani, LAA - 11 hard-hit baseballs (57.9%)
Lars Nootbaar, STL - 11 hard-hit baseballs (52.4%)
11 batters with 10 hard-hit baseballs, including Seiya Suzuki, Julio Rodriguez, Austin Riley, Lane Thomas, Andrew Vaughn, Pete Alonso, Tommy Edman, Robbie Grossman, and Gleyber Torres.
Jeimer Candelario was a pre-season target of mine because he was locked into every day at-bats for Washington and had looked good for stretches in Detroit. It’s for that exact reason that I think he should remain a target in most leagues. He’s started 44 games for Washington, totally 187 plate appearances. That puts him 59th in all of baseball in plate appearances. Candelario struggled a bit out of the gate, but he’s hitting .279/.343/.525 in May with just a 17.9% strikout rate. Rest of season projections have him finishing as a .250 hitters with 20 HR, 57 runs, and 70 RBI. He’ll be light in the counting stats, but if you’re in a deeper league, you can do a lot worse than a guy who hits 3rd or 4th every day and makes a lot of solid contact. There will be some weeks where Washington gets a solid schedule and he can have good production.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Home Runs
Aaron Judge, NYY - 5 home runs
Nolan Gorman, STL - 4 home runs
Pete Alonso, NYM - 4 home runs
Adolis Garcia, TEX - 4 home runs
Christopher Morel, CHC - 4 home runs
Six hitters with threes home runs (Suzuki, Acuna, Ohtani, Max Muncy, Nolan Arenado, and Anthony Santander).
I’ve full-on faded Adolis Garcia for two years now. It appears that, for two years, I will be wrong, but I’m OK with that, which is why I wanted to write about him here. I truly believe when managing your fantasy team, you have to have a process that you trust for deciding whether or not you think a player will bring your team value. You have to have stats you trust or mechanics you look for when you watch. If that process continuously causes you to miss on multiple players then you might have an issue, but if one player achieves fantasy value despite not having the qualities you look for, that player could just be an exception. Garcia was that player for me…until this season. So far this year, he has cut his strikeout rate by DRASTICALLY reducing his O-swing%. He still swings and misses a fair amount, but he’s also cut down his SwStr% a lot. He’s lifting the ball more than he has in his career, which has led to a career-high HR/FB%. I feel much better about him being a .250 hitter now, the power is absolutely legit, and he has enough speed to chip in 15+ steals. I will absolutely be in on Garcia next year if this keeps up, and I’m OK with missing out this year.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
RBI
Nolan Gorman, STL - 11 RBI
Aaron Judge, NYY - 11 RBI
Pete Alonso, NYM - 10 RBI
Nolan Arenado, STL - 8 RBI
Nine hitters with 7 RBI (Morel, Tucker, Garcia, Burger, Freddie Freeman, Rafael Devers, Isaac Paredes, Willson Contreras, and Ryan Mountcastle)
Nolan Gorman is crushing it this year, hitting .302/.391/.640 with 13 home runs, and three stolen bases. Yet, just about a week ago, people were wondering if they should cut or trade him. That’s because from April 24th to May 11th, Gorman hit .163 in 13 games with two home runs, 13 strikeouts, and a .568 OPS. People were mentioning that his first few weeks of production may have been a fluke and that he was “found out.” That obviously wasn’t the case. This is just my opportunity to remind you that the baseball season is so damn long. Hitters are going to go through cold weeks or maybe even a month or month-and-a-half. Not over-reacting to small sample sizes doesn’t just mean not over-reacting to the first two weeks of the season, it means to stop just reacting to two-week samples. Two weeks of stats on their own are useless. Gorman wasn’t doing anything different in those bad weeks. Yes, he was striking out more, but that’s going to happen. Pitchers hadn’t uncovered a hole in his swing, and he wasn’t changing his approach. If you see a player you believe in having a bad few weeks, go make an offer. Don’t assume everybody has the faith you do or is immune to panicking over small sample sizes. (Remember, I didn’t say go make a BAD offer; I just said go make an offer).
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stolen Bases
Esteury Ruiz, OAK - 5 SBs
Tommy Edman, STL - 3 SBs
Willi Castro, MIN - 3 SBs
17 hitters with 2 SBs, including (Jake Fraley, Josh Lowe, Brice Turang, Willson Contreras, Harrison Bader, Taylor Walls, Edward Oliveras, and Luke Raley)
Well, the Minnesota Twins are banged up again and that might mean more chances for Willie Castro. The switch-hitter has started the last four games, playing 2B, 3B, and LF. While Edouard Julien is expected to get most of the playing time at 2B with Jorge Polanco out, Castro can spell Julien there, spell Kyle Farmer and 3B and also mix in the outfield with Max Kepler on the IL as well. With semi-regular playing time, Castro could be a cheap speed option in deeper leagues. He does have a 30% strikeout rate in 12 games in May, but he’s also hitting .263 with four stolen bases. Again, we’re talking about deep leagues or AL-only leagues, but a .260 average in a solid lineup with the chance to swipe 2+ bases a week is not a bad line-up filler.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Pitching Leaders (Week of May 8th)
SwStr% (Starting Pitchers)
Reid Detmers, LAA - 22.9% SwStr%
Charlie Morton, ATL - 21.7% SwStr%
Spencer Strider, ATL - 20.5% SwStr%
Edward Cabrera, MIA - 20.3% SwStr%
Alex Wood, SF - 19.4% SwStr%
Brandon Bielak, HOU - 19.3% SwStr%
Clayton Kershaw, LAD - 18.7% SwStr%
Tanner Houck, BOS - 18.4% SwStr%
Joe Ryan, MIN - 18.1% SwStr%
Zack Wheeler, PHI - 17.8% SwStr%
So I think Brandon Bielak should only be limited to deeper leagues. He was used strictly as a bullpen option for Houston last year but posted a 3.65 ERA. This year, he’s made three starts with a 2.89 ERA (4.32 SIERA), but he has a 13.1% K-BB% and a 1.77 WHIP. What is intriguing me is that his 11.2% SwStr% is up from his 2022 season, and we might be able to directly connect them to him throwing his slider 7% more this year and his change-up 6% more. Those two pitches have a 48.1% whiff rate and 38.3% whiff rate, respectively. He still has a really bad fastball and gives up too much hard contact, but I like that he’s throwing his better pitches more often and think he could be a streaming option in deeper leagues against the right opponent, which is probably not Milwaukee in Milwaukee this week.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stuff+ (Starting Pitchers)
Gerrit Cole, NYY - 135 Stuff+
Spencer Strider, ATL - 134 Stuff+
Graham Ashcraft, CIN - 127 Stuff+
Charlie Morton, ATL - 124 Stuff+
Kevin Gausman, TOR - 123 Stuff+
Michael Kopech, CWS - 123 Stuff+
Kyle Bradish, BAL - 122 Stuff+
Seth Lugo, SD - 119 Stuff+
Corbin Burnes, MIL - 118 Stuff+
Marcus Stroman, CHC - 116 Stuff+
Graham Ashcraft is such a conundrum when it comes to Stuff+ and is becoming a perfect example of how we shouldn’t blindly rely on metrics, no matter how good they may be. While both of his pitch rate above-average on Stuff+, his cutter is comes in at 124 (100 is baseline average per pitch, but his slider is 163 and ranks as the second-best slider in baseball. Still, he has a 4.84 ERA and just a 7.1% K-BB%. Yet, everybody looks at Stuff+ and thinks he’s a breakout candidate.
I’ve written for Rotoballer why I’m not sold on Ashcraft (read the full article here), but the quick take is that being a two-pitch pitcher with a cutter and slider means that everything moves away from right-handed hitters. That means that right-handed hitters don't have to look inside when facing Ashcraft. They can look for a pitch on the outside third of the plate and then sit on the cutter and adjust to the slider or vice-versa. This is also why he has career splits of a .327 average and .520 slugging percentage (SLG) to righties and a .213 average and .255 SLG against lefties. That has not gotten better this year.
Saves
Camilo Doval, SF - 3 saves
Dylan Floro, MIA - 3 saves
Carlos Estevez, LAA - 2 saves
Scott Barlow, KC - 2 saves
Pierce Johnson, COL - 2 saves
Miguel Castro, ARI - 2 saves
With A.J. Puk sidelined by left elbow nerve irritaiton and having an unclear return date, Dylan Floro has emerged as the closer for Miami again. Despite not being a “sexy” option as a closer, Floro had a 2.81 ERA for Miami in 2021 and a 3.02 ERA in 2022. He will only give you a strikeoute rate around 22-23%, but he keeps the ratios in check, and the Marlins have been a decent team so far this year. He should be rostered everywhere.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Behind the paywall you’ll find:
Additional breakdowns on hitters listed above
Breakdowns on prospect call-ups
Two-Start pitcher rankings
Waiver wire hitter rankings
Waiver wire pitching rankings
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