It’s finally May, which means I am introducing a paywall for a portion of the Samulski Sunday Tribune. I’ve been rolling out the new template the last two weeks to show you what will be behind the paywall and what will remain free, so I hope you’ve found that useful enough to come on this ride with me as a paying subscriber.
If not, no worries. I know the hesitation of paying for another piece of content, soI hope you’ll stick around for all the goodness that remains free of charge.
My goal will remain to give you as much actionable fantasy insight as I can so that you can make decisions for your team that you feel will help you be competitive in your leagues.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on the new structure so that I can make this the best product it can be.
FREE STUFF!
Hitting Leaders (Week of April 24th)
Hard Hit%
Paul Goldschmidt, STL - 15 hard-hit baseballs (62.5%)
Shohei Ohtani, LAA - 15 hard-hit baseballs (62.5%)
Vinnie Pasquantino, KC - 12 hard-hit baseballs (54.5%)
Josh Naylor, CLE - 12 hard-hit baseballs (75%)
Ronald Acuna Jr, ATL - 11 hard-hit baseballs (63.6%)
Max Kepler, MIN - 11 hard-hit baseballs (63.6%)
Brandon Drury, LAA - 11 hard-hit baseballs (63.6%)
8 hitters with 10 hard-hit baseballs, including Masataka Yoshida, Alex Call, Jarren Duran, and Anthony Rendon.
I feel like we haven’t really talked about Vinnie Pasquantino this year. The Royals’ first baseman has seemingly picked up where he left off last year with an impressive 14.4% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate. His pull rate and fly ball rate are in line with last year’s numbers, and his SwStr% is still a solid 9.7%. But there are some areas where he has regressed a bit. That 9.7% SwStr% is up from 6.6% in his call-up last year. His O-Swing% is also up to 37.6% and while he still makes a lot of contact, his barrel rate is just 4.9%, which could suggest that he’s chasing out of the zone and making contact but not able to barrel the ball. Still, he has a 53.7% hard-hit rate, so I think this is going to click soon where he tightens up the approach and starts to turn th eplus hard hit rate into barrels, which have the launch angle and exit velocity to do real damage. Let’s predict June is the hot month for Pasquantio where the home runs start flying, but I feel like that month is coming.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Home Runs
Brandon Drury, LAA - 4 home runs
Brent Rooker, OAK - 4 home runs
Jose Miranda, MIN - 3 home runs
Manny Machado, SD - 3 home runs
Jeremy Pena, HOU - 3 home runs
Byron Buxton, MIN - 3 home runs
Look at this list. Seriously. Brandon Drury, Brent Rooker, Jack Suwinski. And these are guys who have been hitting for most of the year. It’s been such an odd April. I think this is a good time to sell high on Brandon Drury. Yes, he’s had a great week against Oakland, but he has a 30.6% strikeout rate and 14.7% SwStr% on the season. He’s chasing out of the zone at lot and his contact rate is the LOWEST OF HIS CAREER. Yes, he’s still hitting the ball hard enough when he makes contact, but he’s not making enough contact for me to think he will be a consistent source of offense. With Jared Walsh continuing to make progress and nearing rehab outings, I’m not sure Drury will be a regular starter come June.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
RBI
Brandon Drury, LAA - 12 RBI
Brent Rooker, OAK - 9 RBI
Nick Senzel, CIN - 8 RBI
Isaac Paredes, TB - 7 RBI
Jorge Polando, MIN - 7 RBI
Byron Buxton, MIN - 7 RBI
10 hitters with 6 RBI
Let’s talk about Nick Senzel for a second. He’s only played 15 games this year, so it’s SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT for all of this, but he has a career-high, 12.3% walkr rate to go along with a 17% strikout rate. He’s pulling and lifting the ball more than he has since 2020 and chasing out of the zone as little as he has since 2020 as well. The SwStr% is up and the contact rate is down slightly, but his launch angle is also noticeably up, so it’s possible Senzel is trading some contact for power, which isn’t a bad thing in that home park. The max exit velo hasn’t changed is any meaningful way, but perhaps Senzel has a 15-15 season incoming with like a .260 batting average (if he can stay healthy). That’s not that bad for a player who’s picking up lots of positional versatility as they move him around.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stolen Bases
Esteury Ruiz, OAK - 6 SBs
Ji-Hwan Bae, PIT - 5 SBs
Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA - 4 SBs
Ha-Seong Kim, SD - 4 SBs
Shohei Ohtani, LAA - 4 SBs
Thairo Estrada, SF - 3 SBs
Brenton Doyle, COL - 3 SBS
Victor Robles, WAS - 3 SBs
Brenton Doyle is hitting .176 and has a 32% strikeout rate after striking out 33% of the time in Triple-A, so I don’t think he sticks long-term, but he will steal bases while he’s up. He hit 23 HRs and stole 23 bases last year, so he has intriguing fantasy tools, but I’m not sure the contact will help him get the most out of those just yet.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Pitching Leaders (Week of April 24th)
SwStr% (Starting Pitchers)
Spencer Strider, ATL - 29.7% SwStr%
Kyle Wright, ATL - 26.1% SwStr%
Kevin Gausman, TOR - 25.0% SwStr%
Hunter Greene, CIN - 21.2% SwStr%
Clayton Kershaw, LAD - 20.5% SwStr%
Domingo German, NYY - 20.2% SwStr%
Freddy Peralta, MIL - 19.4% SwStr%
Josiah Gray, WAS - 18.7% SwStr%
Max Fried, ATL - 18.6% SwStr%
Tyler Anderson, LAA - 18.3% SwStr%
I have been a Domingo German hater, but perhaps I was wrong. He’s always had a good curveball, but that has never really been enough. Now he has an elite curveball and is using the change-up and sinker in ways to offset his bad fastball, and maybe we should be intriguing. The curve has a 21.2% SwStr% and 39.4% CSW, and the change-up also has a 21.2% SwStr%. Having two pitches you throw over 20% of the time both register over a 205 SwStr% is very nice. The four-seam is still bad, but the sinker is getting groundballs to help mitigate damage. I think there will still be starts when opponents get to his four-seam and pound out a few runs, but German should maybe have graduated to “team streamer,” as Paul Sporer says, and be used against all but the most potent offenses.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stuff+ (Starting Pitchers)
Kevin Gausman, TOR - 131 Stuff+
Spencer Strider, ATL - 130 Stuff+
Michael Kopech, CWS - 129 Stuff+
Drew Rasmussen, TB - 128 Stuff+
Joe Ryan, MIN - 124 Stuff+
Taj Bradley, TB - 122 Stuff+
Mason Miller, OAK - 122 Stuff+
Logan Gilbert, SEA - 121 Stuff+
Framber Valdez, HOU -121 Stuff+
Logan Webb, SF - 120 Stuff+
Michael Kopech has looked better of late, but I just can’t get behind this. His four-seam has a 13.9% SwStr% and his change is at 13.3%, but th eofur-seam is also allowing a 21% barrel rate and the slider is allowing a 25% barrel rate. Considering he is 91% four-seam and slider, that is not a combo that I can get behind. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but I want no part of Kopech right now.
Saves
Carlos Estevez - 3 saves
Emmanuel Clase, CLE - 3 saves
11 pitchers with 2 saves, including Jose Alvarado, Jordan Romano, Alex Lange, Will Smith, Scott Barlow, Brusdar Graterol, and David Bednar
I hope you didn’t give up on Alex Lange. Yes, the Detroit reliever had a rough beginning of the season, but he has looked much better of late. He hasn’t allowed a run since April 9th and has 13 strikeouts and just 2 walks over those 8.1 innings. He should be added back everywhere.
Brusdar Graterol seems to have emerged as the lead of what is still a psuedo-committee in Los Angeles. Graterol also faces 2-3-4 against St. Louis, which is a good indication that Dave Roberts trusts him to close games against the heart of the order. Reliever Recon mentioned him as a pick-up two weeks ago, so if you haven’t subscribed to that yet, you probably should so that you cna get ahead of those adds.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Samulski's Sunday Tribune to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.