I can’t believe we’re almost to July, but rest assured that there is still ground to make up in your fantasy leagues.
However, this is also the time to be a bit frugal with your bids. We have the trade deadline coming up and players’ values could change drastically after that. We also want to ensure we have money to be adding players all season long, so if your league doesn’t allow $0 bids, you need to be looking at how much you have per week.
Adding a play for $3 this week and riding him until you make another small claim might be better than continuously chasing these huge bids. Even studs like Bobby Miller have had hard weeks and Matt Mervis, who many expect to put up strong totals, was sent back to the minors. Putting so much FAAB on untested young players is a really risky move, even if it seems like it pays off big time.
Sometimes those boring old veterans are the more cost-effective play.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on the new structure so that I can make this the best product it can be. As always, my goal is to give you as much actionable fantasy insight as I can so that you can make decisions for your team that you feel will help you be competitive in your leagues.
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Hitting Leaders (Week of June 13th)
Hard Hit Baseballs
Starling Marte, NYM - 12 hard-hit baseballs (70.6%)
Juan Soto, SD - 11 hard-hit baseballs (68.8%)
Fernando Tatis Jr., SD - 11 hard-hit baseballs (55%)
Ketel Marte, ARI - 11 hard-hit baseballs (57.9%)
Eloy Jimenez, CWS - 10 hard-hit baseballs (66.7%)
Austin Riley, ATL - 10 hard-hit baseballs (58.8%)
Amed Rosario, CLE - 10 hard-hit baseballs (58.8%)
Jesus Sanchez, MIA - 10 hard-hit baseballs (52.6%)
Bryan De La Cruz, MIA - 10 hard-hit baseballs (50%)
Manny Machado, SD - 10 hard-hit baseballs (43.5%)
Remember when we thought Starling Marte was washed at the start of the season? Well, he still kinda might be. Despite the hard-hit numbers, Marte is hitting .286 in June and .258 so far on the season. He has just a .403 SLG in June and a 37.3% pull rate, which is down from the 42.5% rate he had last year. He’s also hitting the ball on the ground more. Any time I see a player in his mid-30s who has suffered injuries start to pull the ball less, I get worried about bat speed and reaction time. Marte is also registering much slower in sprint speed, despite swiping 20 bases so far this year. To me, this is registering as a player on the downswing of his career, but a player who is smart and talented enough to still produce and not bottom out. He likely won’t be a .300 hitter again or hit 20 home runs, but could Marte still give you .270 and finish the season with 12-15 home runs and 35+ stolen bases? Yeah, I can see that.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Home Runs
Matt Olson, ATL - 4 home runs
Byron Buxton, MIN - 3 home runs
Juan Soto, SD - 3 home runs
Max Kepler, MIN - 3 home runs
Joey Votto, CIN - 3 home runs
Anthony Santander, BAL - 3 home runs
Billy McKinney, NYY - 3 home runs (*more on him later)
Jake Fraley, CIN - 3 home runs
Ketel Marte, ARI - 3 home runs
Andrew Vaughn, CWS - 3 home runs
Max Kepler can’t seem to stay healthy this year, playing in just 50 games. However, he has 10 HRs and an 11.3% barrel rate in those 50 games. With him pulling the ball and lifting it 46.8% of the time each, hitting the ball that hard is going to lead to home runs. Projections only have Kepler playing another 60 games this season and hitting another 10 home runs, so if he were to play more, you could be looking at a really solid source of power the rest of the way. Kepler has also seen his strikeout rate go up and he’s been more aggressive, but he still carries a strong 89% zone contact rate, so I think a more aggressive-power first approach might not be a bad idea since he was never producing high batting averages anyway. Kepler could remain a .220 hitter but with 15 HRs the rest of the way.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
RBI
Ketel Marte, ARI - 10 RBI (*more on him later)
Alex Bregman, HOU - 8 RBI
Joey Votto, CIN - 7 RBI
12 players with 6 RBI, including Daniel Vogelbach, Garrett Cooper, Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Fraley, and Anthony Santander.
Man, Joey Votto being back and hitting is such a great thing to see. He hit just.173/.340/.333 in his Triple-A rehab across 22 games, so this power surge in his return has been admittedly surprising. Votto also struck out 33% of the time in Triple-A, which is more concerning for me than the poor batting average. I would love to bet on Votto bouncing back and we know that he has the type of work ethic and analytical mind to continue to tweak his approach until it works. However, I would be cautious in your bids and assume that a lot of his early production has to do with having faced a pretty easy run of starting pitching so far.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stolen Bases
Corbin Carroll, ARI - 4 SBs
Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL - 4 SBs
Maikel Garcia, KC- 3 SBs
Esteury Ruiz, OAK - 3 SBs
T.J. Friedel, CIN - 3 SBs
Bryson Stott, PHI - 3 SBs
Jarren Duran, BOS - 3 SBs
I was put onto Maikel Garcia in the preseason by James Anderson, who was put onto him by Rob Silver. Despite being a speed-oriented player, Garcia is fourth amongst qualified 3B in hard-hit rate and 10th in exit velocity on flyballs and line drives. Garcia has a 7.5% barrel rate over the last 30 days and a 37.3% pull rate, which are conducive to power production, but his 5.2-degree launch angle will likely make that hard, as will hitting in Kauffman Stadium. Still, with just a 20.7% strikeout rate, Garcia will remain a quality fantasy target who could run into a few more home runs if he returns his launch angle to the league-average mark it was during his first three weeks in the big leagues. And he has the speed to go with it.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Pitching Leaders (Week of June 13th)
SwStr% (Starting Pitchers)
Dylan Cease, CWS - 22.8% SwStr%
Blake Snell, SD - 21.6% SwStr%
Eury Perez, MIA - 21.3% SwStr%
Framber Valdez, HOU - 20.0% SwStr%
Jesus Luzardo, MIA - 19.8% SwStr%
Gerrit Cole, NYY - 19.0% SwStr%
Shohei Ohtani, LAA - 18.8% SwStr%
Spencer Strider, ATL - 18.4% SwStr%
Shane Bieber, CLE - 18.3% SwStr%
Andrew Abbott, CIN - 18.2% SwStr%
I think there’s some groundwork for a Jesus Luzardo breakout in the second half. On the season, Luzardo has a 3.77 ERA and 21.5% K-BB% with a 3.51 SIERA and 3.58 xFIP. However, in June he has posted a 3.99 ERA with a 2.88 xFIP and a 26.1% K-BB%. That June success could be connected to a major pitch mix change. In May, Luzardo was throwing his slider 34.4% of the time, and his change-up 13.2%. In June, Luzardo flipped that, throwing the change 28.5% of the time and his slider 25.8% of the time. The change-up may get fewer whiffs for Luzardo, but it’s a better pitch that induces more soft contact, so I think this pitch mix change could help fuel some positive ratio regression for Luzardo and boost a strong second half.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stuff+ (Starting Pitchers)
Kyle Bradish, BAL - 146 Stuff+
Spencer Strider, ATL - 133 Stuff+
Graham Ashcraft, CIN - 130 Stuff+
Gerrit Cole, NYY - 127 Stuff+
Bobby Miller, LAD - 126 Stuff+
Ryan Walker, SF - 121 Stuff+
Aaron Civale, CLE - 117 Stuff+
Corbin Burnes, MIL - 116 Stuff+
Logan Gilbert, SEA - 116 Stuff+
Bryan Woo, SEA - 116 Stuff+
Aaron Civale missed almost two months and then came back with a different pitch mix. After not throwing a slider at all in his first two starts of the year, Civale is throwing it 8.4% of the time in his four starts since coming back. The slider has just a 9.7% SwStr% but induces soft contact and has a 1.03 dERA. Civale has also limited the usage of his four-seam while upping his sinker and curveball usage. The sinker misses more bats than the four-seam, but the four-seam is a better pitch for him according to dERA. The new slider/sinker addition to the pitch mix and the upping of the curveball could mean more strikeouts for Civale, but I’m not convinced relying on the sinker is going to be a good move for him.
Saves
Alexis Diaz, CIN - 3 saves
Evan Phillips, LAD - 3 saves
Camilo Doval, SF - 3 saves
Jordan Romano, TOR - 3 saves
8 players with 2 saves, including Scott McGough and Hunter Harvey, who should both be added if they weren’t already in your league. They have been the best relievers in their respective bullpens for weeks and are now starting to see save chances to back them up. McGough might remain in a committee, but he appears to be the lead in that committee right now, and Arizona is a good team so saves will come.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Behind the paywall you’ll find:
Additional breakdowns on hitters and pitchers listed above
Breakdowns on prospect call-ups
Minor league leaderboards for possible hitter and pitcher stashes
Top Waiver wire hitter pick-up
Top Waiver wire pitcher pick-up
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