Samulski Sunday Tribune - Week of June 5th
Last week's leaders to help make this week's FAAB decisions
It’s June, which means we’re now two months into the fantasy baseball season.
For me, the calendar flipping to June usually means I start looking more closely at my standings and categories. Earlier on in the season, I’m trying to add talented players who were in the midst of breakouts or maybe were cut too early. Now that I have a better sense of the player pool and what the true talent level of my team is, I want to look at where I’m weakest and attack those areas.
However, it’s still early enough in the season not to panic and overreact. There are four months of baseball left. That’s a lot of time. Don’t rush to cut somebody because they haven’t hit a HR or stolen a base in two weeks. Cold streaks happen. Keep an eye on the underlying batted ball data, the swinging strike data, the playing time, etc. and don’t react so quickly to hot/cold stretches.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on the new structure so that I can make this the best product it can be. As always, my goal is to give you as much actionable fantasy insight as I can so that you can make decisions for your team that you feel will help you be competitive in your leagues.
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Hitting Leaders (Week of May 29th)
Hard Hit Baseballs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR - 12 hard-hit baseballs (66.7%)
Shoehi Ohtani, LAA - 12 hard-hit baseballs (66.7%)
Keibert Ruiz, WAS - 12 hard-hit baseballs (66.7%)
Corey Seager, TEX - 12 hard-hit baseballs (54.5%)
Jose Abreu, HOU - 11 hard-hit baseballs (61.1%)
LaMonte Wade Jr., SF - 11 hard-hit baseballs (68.8%)
Marcus Semien, TEX - 11 hard-hit baseballs (55%)
Luis Garcia, WAS - 11 hard-hit baseballs (61.1%)
Keibert Ruiz was a target of mine pre-season because he was exceptionally unlucky with his batted ball data last year and was really hurt by the shift. He was always a high batting average hitter in the minor leagues and is now sporting a 10.2% barrel rate while hitting the ball in the air slightly more. He makes impressive zone contact and the Washington lineup is a bit feistier than people give them credit for. Ruiz should be a solid batting average asset who could push to finish with 20 HRs this season.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Home Runs
Mookie Betts, LAD - 4 home runs
Aaron Judge, NYY - 4 home runs
Jake Bauers, NYY - 3 home runs
J.D. Martinez, LAD - 3 home runs
Keibert Ruiz, WAS - 3 home runs
Shohei Ohtani, LAD - 3 home runs
18 hitters with two home runs, including Mark Canha, Eddie Rosario, Josh Donaldson, Ke-Bryan Hayes, Taylor Ward, Chas McCormick, and Gary Sanchez.
So is Jake Bauers going to be a thing? I think, kind of. I mean, we know he’s selling out for power this year and becoming a three-true-outcomes type of hitter, which worked for him in the minors and has led to 5 HRs in just 26 MLB games this year. As a lefty, selling out for power in Yankee stadium is a good thing, but the power and RBI are the only thing you’ll get and it will be inconsistent. I’d also be cautious about playing time. Bauers has played in one of two games since both Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton came off the IL, and the game he played was the one where Stanton sat. Right now, with Harrison Bader hurt, the Yankees are just playing Isiah Kiner-Falefa in CF, which means Judge plays RF and LF is split between Bauers, Willie Calhoun, and perhaps Oswaldo Cabrera, who was just called up. The Yankees may even put Stanton back out in LF, so they can DH Donaldson some days and have DJ LeMahieu at 3B. It’s all just a bit crowded with fringey players.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
RBI
Alex Bregman, HOU - 9 RBI
Fernando Tatis Jr., SD - 9 RBI
Josh Naylor, CLE- 8 RBI
Corey Seager, TEX - 8 RBI
J.D. Martinez, LAD - 7 RBI
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI - 7 RBI
Jake Bauers, NYY - 7 RBI
Ke-Bryan Hayes, PIT - 7 RBI
Jonah Heim, TEX - 7 RBI
Shohei Ohtani, LAA - 7 RBI
The Ke’Bryan Hayes fly ball revolution was almost happening. For about 40 at-bats, his average launch angle trended up considerably. He hit four HRs through the last two weeks of May (he also hit just .176), but then the launch angle has trended back down of late and the batting average has come back (hitting .286 the last week).
It’s pretty clear Hayes is working on his swing, but that’s incredibly tough to do mid-season. You can also see that his rolling K% is going up consistently as he tries to add more lift. You’re going to get that kind of inconsistency when you’re tinkering with a swing, but Hayes hits the ball hard and has good speed, so if he can find a swing path that works for him, there is some fantasy goodness to be had. While you’re not acting on it now, I would certainly keep an eye on it.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stolen Bases
Jake McCarthy, ARI- 5 SBs
Jake Fraley, CIN - 4 SBs
Ha-Seong Kim, SD - 4 SBs
Willi Castro, MIN - 3 SBs
Will Benson, CIN - 3 SBs
Bobby Witt Jr., KC - 3 SBs
Starling Marte, NYM - 3 SBs
Wander Franco, TB - 3 SBs
Julio Rodriguez, SEA - 3 SBs
Jake McCarthy is back up in the big leagues and has started the last six games. He’s hitting .412 with two runs and two RBI. He’s hitting 8th or 9th in every game, which is something to consider because of the impact it could have on his counting stats. McCarthy doesn’t strike out much, but he also doesn’t hit the ball hard which means you’re rostering him simply for speed, which he certainly has. With Alek Thomas back in Triple-A, the runway for playing time for McCarthy should be there, but we just need to accept that he doesn’t have the exciting upside that people thought he did pre-season.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Pitching Leaders (Week of May 29th)
SwStr% (Starting Pitchers)
Dylan Cease, CWD - 23.2% SwStr%
Andrew Heaney, TEX - 23.1% SwStr%
Kodai Senga, NYM - 22% SwStr%
Griffin Canning, LAA - 20.7% SwStr%
Chris Sale, BOS - 20.3% SwStr%
Max Scherzer, NYM - 19.8% SwStr%
James Paxton, BOS - 19% SwStr%
MacKenzie Gore, WAS - 17.8% SwStr%
Tyler Wells, BAL - 17.8% SwStr%
Jordan Lyles, KC - 17.6% SwStr%
We finally got good Kodai Senga. His 1.35 WHIP and 13.2% walk rate have been a problem during the year, and he can’t seem to get out of his own way a lot of the time. He gets into bad counts and sometimes can’t go deep into games as often as we’d like. However, the ghost fork is clearly a great pitch and when he can command the zone, he can be a dominant pitcher. The 4.12 SIERA is an indicator of who he is as a pitcher given his mercurial nature. You can either deal with the ups and downs of Senga all year or you can try to deal him after a hot start or two (like this one). It depends on your risk tolerance or your team’s WHIP.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stuff+ (Starting Pitchers)
Shohei Ohtani, LAA - 124 Stuff+
Edward Cabrera, MIA - 123 Stuff+
Hunter Greene, CIN - 122 Stuff+
Blake Snell, SD - 122 Stuff+
Yusei Kikuchi, TOR - 122 Stuff+
Framber Valdez, HOU - 121 Stuff+
Charlie Morton, ATL - 118 Stuff+
Aaron Nola, PHI - 117 Stuff+
Corbin Burnes, MIL - 114 Stuff+
Justin Verlander, NYM - 113 Stuff+
I’m honestly not sure why we keep going back to the well with Blake Snell. Yes, the raw stuff is good and he was a budding ace back when he was in Tampa Bay, but sometimes things just don’t pan out. Over the last month, Snell is 71st among qualified starting in K-BB% with a 10.6% rate. That’s right next to Tommy Henry and below Brandon Bielak. He has a 3.67 ERA over that span, but a 4.84 SIERA and 4.57 xFIP. He never throws more than six innings, he’s walked fewer than two hitters in just two starts all season, and he’s giving up an 11.2% barrel rate. He gets Chicago on Monday and if he has a good start, I’m trying to move him; especially before he pitches in Coors on Sunday.
Saves
David Bednar, PIT - 3 saves
Felix Bautista, BAL - 2 saves
Davis Robertson, NYM - 2 saves
Justin Lawrence, COL - 2 saves
Devin Williams, MIL - 2 saves
Jordan Romano, TOR - 2 saves
Raisel Iglesias, ATL - 2 saves
Last week, I talked about adding Justin Lawrence, now he’s here with two saves. They weren’t pretty, but he’s been good for most of the year, and I think he can hold this job.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Behind the paywall you’ll find:
Additional breakdowns on hitters and pitchers listed above
Breakdowns on prospect call-ups (like Bryan Woo and Reese Olson)
Top Waiver wire hitter pick-up
Top Waiver wire pitcher pick-up
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