Samulski Sunday Tribune - Week of July 17th
I have some sad news.
This will be the last edition of the Samulski Sunday Tribune in its current format.
The good news is that the Tribune will live on in a new iteration as a part of NBC Sports’ weekly fantasy content starting next week and will be ENTIRELY FREE.
I will be continuing to tweak the format as I integrate the content onto NBC Sports, so I would love any feedback on the parts you find most useful, least useful, or things you still believe are missing. Just DM me on Twitter (@SamskiNYC) and let me know.
Most importantly, I wanted to thank all of you for taking the time to read this on Sundays over the last few months. I am endlessly grateful for your support and, for those of you who subscribed, please know that I do not take it lightly that you believed in my work enough to spend some of your hard-earned money. It means the world to me, and I hope you found the Tribune worth it.
I am often my harshest critic when it comes to the content I create, ever since I was writing bad fantasy stories based on the Redwall series of books when I was in fifth grade. I endeavored to keep growing the Tribune until it became a consistently useful piece of the fantasy landscape that helped people manage their teams in an efficient and effective way. Your presence here means a lot to show me that I may not have been off the mark when I started this.
I’m sad that it is ending in this iteration; however, I assure you that every piece of content I put out is always geared towards being as beneficial to you as possible and that won’t ever change. I hope to continue telling stories about players and their production in was that make us love this sport and win our leagues.
If you have any feedback or ideas for content you’d like me to produce in the future, please don’t hesitate to reach out on Twitter.
Thanks again, and, as always, enjoy your Sunday.
FREE STUFF!
Obviously, since there are only two games so far this week, we’re not going to have the normal full leaderboards, but I’ll highlight some players I think are worth mentioning.
Hitting Leaders (Week of July 10th)
Hard Hit Baseballs
Manny Machado, SD - 7 hard-hit baseballs (78.9%)
Trea Turner, PHI - 7 hard-hit baseballs (71.1%)
Taylor Ward, LAA - 6 hard-hit baseballs (73.7%)
Randy Arozarena - 6 hard-hit baseballs (76.5%)
Not a lot is going right for the Angels but at least Taylor Ward is starting to figure it out. After a cold start that had everybody trashing him on Twitter, he’s up to .251/.325/.394 on the season. His strikeout rate is down, his hard-hit rate is up, he’s not swinging and missing more than last year, and he’s gotten his chase tendencies in check. He has also started to pull and lift the ball more, which has led to an .810 OPS over the last 30 days that isn’t eye-popping but is a clear improvement. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .333/.421/.545 with two home runs and six runs scored. The lineup may be falling apart around him, but Ward could be in for a solid summer.
Home Runs
Cody Bellinger, CHC - 3 home runs
Kerry Carpenter, DET - 3 home runs
Bellinger is out of this world right now and could be the top trade chip on the market when it comes to hitters, but Kerry Carpenter also needs to be on radars. He’s hitting .273/.329/.652 over the last 30 days with seven home runs and 19 RBI. The Tigers won’t put enough men on base for him to pile up major RBI totals, but this kid barrels the hell out of the ball. He’s also started to cut down on his strikeout rate, which makes Carpenter a good add in most leagues. Just keep in mind his poor lineup and home park when setting your expectations.
RBI
Cody Bellinger, CHC - 6 RBI
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY - 6 RBI
Kerry Carpenter, DET - 6 RBI
I wrote about Giancarlo Stanton in my first article for NBC Sports, so you should check that out here, but the gist of it is that I’m fully buying into a strong second half for the slugger.
Stolen Bases
Travis Jankowski, C.J. Abrams, Zack Gelof, Trea Turner, and Ronald Acuna Jr. all with two stolen bases.
We’ll discuss Gelof later, but I just want to highlight that Travis Jankowski is playing basically every day for Texas and is hitting .328/.425/.423 in 55 games with 13 stolen bases. He’s a .246 career hitter who doesn’t barrel the ball but also doesn’t strike out. This season’s success has come from turning a good percentage of his groundballs into line drives, so I’m not willing to believe this is sustainable, but I’m open to rostering anybody in Texas’ lineup while they’re hitting well. Then you can easily replace him if/when his production starts to dip.
Pitching Leaders (Week of July 10th)
SwStr% (Starting Pitchers)
Spencer Strider, ATL - 23.7% SwStr%
Framber Valdez, HOU - 21% SwStr%
Blake Snell, SD - 20.7% SwStr%
Corbin Burnes, MIL - 18.6% SwStr%
James Paxton, BOS - 17.5% SwStr%
Tyler Glasnow, TB - 16.8% SwStr%
Johan Oviedo, PIT - 15.9% SwStr%
Dean Kremer, BAL - 14.3% SwStr%
Pablo Lopez, MIN - 14.2% SwStr%
Clarke Schmidt, NYY - 14.1% SwStr%
It took a while for Clarke Schmidt to figure it out, but he kind of has. He put up a 3.04 ERA in June despite posting just a 12.5% strikeout rate but has a 3.86 ERA in two July starts with a 35.6% strikeout rate. The key has been sweeper usage. Schmidt used the pitch 27.3% of the time in May but has now thrown it 37% of the time in July. The pitch is still not great against lefties, which means Schmidt has to use a mediocre cutter, but it allows him to miss lots of bats and perform well against right-handed heavy lineups. He’s also continuously reduced the usage of his sinker, which is not a good pitch, so that’s addition by subtraction. Schmidt will likely still struggle against left-handed-heavy offenses, but I think he’s becoming reliable when he faces a team with a lot of dangerous righties.
Saves
Felix Bautista, Jhoan Duran, Devin Williams, Camilo Doval all with two saves.
Aroldis Chapman got a save for the Rangers this weekend, so we need to discuss that bullpen. It appears as though Will Smith could now function as the high-leverage reliever (HLR - coined by Greg Jewett of Reliever Recon). Smith entered the game with one out in the 7th and a runner on and Texas up by two. He faced pinch hitter Bo Naylor and then the leadoff man, Steven Kwan. He then stayed in for the 8th and faced the 2-4 hitters and retired all of them. To me, that’s a clear sign that Smith remains Bruce Bochy’s most trusted reliever. The issue is that, with Chapman in town, Smith may now be used to do exactly what he did on Saturday.
Prospect Call-Ups (Week of July 10th)
These are NOT ranked in any meaningful order
Trey Cabbage- 1B/OF, LAA
Zack Gelof - 2B, OAK
Tyler Soderstrom - C, OAK
Quinn Priester - SP, PIT
Logan Allen - SP, CLE
Logan Allen looks to be on the way back to the Guardian rotation with Bieber placed on the IL. No word yet on how long Bieber will be out, but Allen was solid in his first taste of the big leagues and should be worth an add again.
Trey Cabbage has been a feature in the Tribune for months now. He hit .287 with 23 HR and 24 steals this season in Triple-A, but has been on the bench since getting called up. Just keep an eye on him in case the Angels decide to sell, which would open up at-bats.
Zack Gelof and Tyler Soderstrom are similar in that they both strike out a decent amount and find themselves in a bad lineup in a poor hitter’s park. They also will both likely start every day for the remainder of the season. Soderstrom has legit power and will hit in the middle of the lineup, while Gelof has the wheels to be a factor in the SB category and could be a much better asset in OBP leagues. I think both are worth small bids right now given their swing-and-miss and likely low batting averages with poor counting stats in that lineup.
Quinn Priester was once a top prospect, but the star has lost a bit of luster. He’s just a guy to keep an eye on for now.
MINOR LEAGUE LEADERBOARD (POTENTIAL STASHES)
HITTERS (Last 30 days)
Justyn Henry-Malloy, 3B DET - 1.075 OPS (5 HR, 18 RBI, 2 SB, 27.8% hard-hit rate)
Heston Kjerstad, OF BAL - 1.022 OPS (3 HR, 12 RBI, 32.6% hard-hit rate)
Blake Rutherford, OF WAS - .987 OPS (4 HR, 13 RBI, 3 SB, 28.8% hard-hit rate)
Xavier Edwards, 2B/SS MIA - .945 OPS (2 HR, 18 RBI, 12 SB, 15.4% hard-hit rate)
Jordyn Adams, OF LAA - .872 OPS (11 RBI, 18 R, 16 SB, 26.4% hard-hit rate)
I’ve written about Justin Henry-Malloy a few times here, and I’m surprised he hasn’t gotten a shot in Detroit since their team is just not very good. They released Jonathan Schoop this week and still nothing. It has to be only a matter of time.
If Heston Kjerstad were on any other team he’d be in the majors. However, the Orioles just called up Colten Cowser and can’t even find everyday at-bats for him. The best shot for Kjerstad to have fantasy relevance this season is through a trade or injury.
The trajectory of Blake Rutherford is wild. He was a former top prospect with the Yankees who was traded back in 2017 in a large deal so the Yankees could get David Roberston, Todd Frazier, and Tommy Kahnle. Rutherford looked good until Double-A when he seemed to stagnate, and then the White Sox let him go as a minor league free agent. He’s now latched on in Washington and is hitting .340/.398/.599 with 11 home runs and five steals across 52 games. At just 26 years old, perhaps there’s another chapter for Rutherford.
Xavier Edwards had a chance in Miami earlier and impressed, hitting .381 in 21 at-bats. He’s far more intriguing than Joey Wendle but doesn’t figure to get another shot in Miami this season unless there’s another injury.
With the Angels potentially selling at the trade deadline, it’s not bad practice to get to know all the guys who might get called up if spots open up. Adams was the 17th overall pick in 2018 and hasn’t quite panned out as the Angels hoped, but he’s hitting .260 this year with 12 home runs and 31 steals, so there is some intriguing power/speed in the profile if he gets a crack at some at-bats.
Pitchers (K/9 Last 30 days)
Connor Phillips, CIN 14.64 K/9
Ben Brown, CHC 13.50 K/9
Gavin Stone, LAD 12.91 K/9
Kyle Harrison, SF 12.79 K/9
Kenny Rosenberg, LAA 12.63 K/9
Grayson Rodriguez, BAL 12.57 K/9
Justin Armbruester, BAL 12.27 K/9
Chase Silseth, LAA 11.37 K/9
At this point, we’ve discussed Connor Phillips, Ben Brown, Kyle Harrison, and Grayson Rodriguez a bunch. They remain probably the top-tier pitching prospects who are likely to be called up this season. Gavin Stone has had a few chances and has not panned out this season, but I wouldn‘t write him off yet. It might not happen this year, but there is clearly talent there.
Chase Silseth is back to starting, which is best for his long-term value, and if the Angels start trading away assets, he could get another shot. Same goes for Kenny Rosenberg, who is not nearly the prospect Silseth is and likely wouldn’t be overly interesting in most leagues. Justin Armbruester is having a really solid season with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP across two levels, but he has just 18 innings at Triple-A and just 68 strikeouts in 80.1 innings this year, so I don’t think we’ll see him in 2023.