Samulski Sunday Tribune - Week of July 10th
It’s the All-Star break, which means there are no games until Friday. This is generally the point of the season when people start to comb through their standings, see what categories they truly need. While I’ve listened to/read some great content from people who organize their teams tremendously well and track everything each week, I will admit to also really using the All-Star break to get some extra clarity on my path forward.
This can sometimes be tricky when it comes to FAAB bidding, but I’ve learned that it’s the perfect week to start stashing in NFBC formats where you don’t usually want to waste a bench spot. Since next week is almost essentially a lost week, using a bench spot on a player like Tyler O’Neill, Max Fried, or Trevor Story could be fruitful this week.
This is also a good week to use your streamer starting pitcher spot on a middle reliever (or look ahead to two weeks). Since only three starters will pitch next week, you can use a team’s high leverage reliever to try and steal a win or some strikeouts instead of just taking a zero on a starting pitcher who won’t pitch next week.
I hope that the content I’ve been putting out has been useful to you more often than not, and I hope that the storytelling nature of the way I see analysis is engaging. Let’s see how far we can take it.
Happy Sunday.
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Hitting Leaders (Week of July 3rd)
Hard Hit Baseballs
Ryan O’Hearn, BAL - 15 hard-hit baseballs (78.9%)
Elly De La Cruz, CIN - 15 hard-hit baseballs (71.1%)
Fernando Tatis Jr., SD - 14 hard-hit baseballs (73.7%)
Jorge Soler, MIA - 13 hard-hit baseballs (76.5%)
Mookie Betts, LAD - 13 hard-hit baseballs (65%)
Corey Seager, TEX - 13 hard-hit baseballs (56.5%)
Nolan Arenado, STL - 13 hard-hit baseballs (65%)
We thought Ryan O’Hearn was done after two bad weeks in a row, but perhaps not. He came through with a solid week this week, and is now hitting .307/.353/.526 with seven home runs in 45 games on the season. He’s being far more selective than he’s been in the past, cutting down on his O-Swing% while raising his O-Contact% by 8% from last year. His zone contact rate is actually worse, but his SwStr% is better overall because he’s chasing less. He’s also upped his fly ball rate by 11%, which is not only a reason why he might be swinging and missing in the zone more, but also why he has a career-high barrel rate and HR/FB rate. He’s always had decent raw power, but sported a sub-40% fly ball rate far too many years and actually had a 27.3% fly ball rate in 62 games last year, which makes no sense for a player like him. The Orioles are going to keep playing him against righties while he’s hitting, and while a cold stretch may be coming, there’s also a reason to believe that the added power is at least partially real for a hitter with a better approach at the plate.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Home Runs
Francisco Alvarez, NYM - 4 home runs
Joey Votto, CIN - 4 home runs
Mookie Betts, LAD - 4 home runs
Willy Adames, MIL - 4 home runs
Nine hitters with 3 home runs, including Yainer Diaz, Adolis Garcia, Nolan Arenado, Whit Merrifield, TOR, and Joey Meneses
We talked about Yainer Diaz a few weeks ago when he was starting at DH with Yordan Alvarez out. I discussed then that Diaz could hit enough to force his way into the lineup even when Alvarez is back. So far, that has played itself out. Diaz hit .310/.314/.583 in June with five home runs and 12 RBI. He doesn’t walk a lot, but he doesn’t strikeout a lot either with just a 17.4% strikeout rate in June. He’s hitting 5th most days now and has a 14.4% barrel rate on the season. He’s likely to remain only catcher-eligible this season, but he’s emerged as an option in one-catcher leagues if you’re streaming the position.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
RBI
Willy Adames, MIL - 11 RBI
Joey Votto, CIN - 10 RBI
Francisco Alvarez, 8 RBI
Manny Machado, SD - 8 RBI
Whit Merrifield, TOR - 8 RBI
Nolan Arenado, STL - 8 RBI
Amed Rosario, CLE - 8 RBI
There was a lot of talk about Willy Adames not living up to his ADP, but he has 16 home runs, four steals, and 86 Runs+RBI through 80 games. He’s pretty much right on track to match last season’s numbers. The only category where he’s lagging behind is average, where he’s hitting .213 but he has a .236 BABIP (career .313 BABIP) and also has a .239 xBA. Adames’ average really struggled in May/June, but he’s had a hot start to July, and it’s very likely that he finishes the year around .240, which will make him essentially the same exact player as last year. His barrel rate is pretty much the same, and he’s chasing a bit more outside of the zone, but he’s gotten that in check, so I’d still be looking to get Adames if somebody thinks he’s truly a .210 hitter.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stolen Bases
Elly De La Cruz, CIN - 7 SBs (this dude is so much fun to watch)
Andres Gimenez, CLE - 5 SBs
Francisco Lindor, NYM - 4 SBs
Willi Castro, MIN - 4 SBs
Bobby Witt Jr, KC - 4 SBs
CJ Abrams, WAS - 4 SBs
Earlier in the season, Sami and I looked at Andres Gimenez on our podcast “Catcher’s Corner” and we discussed that nothing looked drastically different. He over-performed a bit last year, but he’s striking out less this year, barreling slightly less, and hitting the ball in the air slightly more. Yet, nothing stood out as being a major issue, so it’s not a surprise that things have started to come around for him of late. Over the last 14 days, Gimenez is hitting .311/.426/.533 with two home runs, six RBI, nine runs, and six steals. He has an 11.4% barrel rate over that span and is actually pulling and lifting the ball more. Last year, Gimenez should have been closer to a .280 hitter with 15 home runs, and I think there’s a good chance that his second half looks like a .270-.280 hitter with 7+ home runs and 10+ steals, which makes him essentially the player we saw last year.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Pitching Leaders (Week of July 3rd)
SwStr% (Starting Pitchers)
Lance Lynn, CWS - 23.5% SwStr%
Freddy Peralta, MIL - 23.1% SwStr%
Joe Musgrove, SD - 22% SwStr%
Joe Ryan, MIN - 20.2% SwStr%
Logan Gilbert, SEA - 20% SwStr%
Yusei Kikuchi, TOR - 18.4% SwStr%
Seth Lugo, SD - 18.2% SwStr%
Tyler Glasnow, TB - 18.2% SwStr%
Spencer Strider, ATL - 17.3% SwStr%
JP Sears, OAK - 16.7% SwStr%
So Freddy Peralta has given up 11 total runs in his last four starts. That’s not great. He also has 32 strikeouts in 21.2 innings. He has a 14% SwStr% on the season, but has given up a 9.4% barrel rate and both his fastball and slider have taken turns being ineffective. Despite his slider missing a lot of bats, it had a 4.68 dERA in April and a 7.50 dERA in May where it also allowed a 31.3% barrel rate. Well, in June, the slider allowed no barrels and registered a 0.91 dERA. The curve also followed with its best performance of the season, and now he just had a 40% whiff rate with his fastball against the Cubs this week. The pieces are all coming together for Peralta, which can sometimes take a while after injury, and while they all haven’t come together at the same time, it might only be a matter of time before that happens.
*You’ll find more analysis on additional players later on for paying subscribers*
Stuff+ (Starting Pitchers)
Graham Ashcraft, CIN - 139 Stuff+
Bobby Miller, LAD - 129 Stuff+
Corbin Burnes, MIL - 128 Stuff+
Aaron Nola, PHI 124 Stuff+
Tyler Glasnow, TB - 124 Stuff+
Blake Snell, SD - 123 Stuff+
Joe Musgrove, SD - 120 Stuff+
Kyle Bradish, BAL - 119 Stuff+
Zack Wheeler, PHI - 119 Stuff+
Eury Perez, MIA - 117 Stuff+
So what do you do with Eury Perez? As Craig Mish reported, “Marlins wanted to pause Perez several times over the past month. Johnny Cueto was re-injured and then they lost Trevor Rogers & Edward Cabrera, so they kept him going. Perez was also too good to option. As he has now exceeded his career high in IP, the organization has made the call to slow him down and potentially preserve innings for later in the season.” So Perez will head to Double-A, where he will continue to throw, keep his arm strength up, and hopefully help Miami later in the season. Obviously, this is not ideal for fantasy purposes because you can’t put him on the IL and we have no idea when he’ll be back, but I think you have to hold him if you can. It’s clear Miami doesn’t want him to be a multi-inning bullpen guy this year, and that makes sense because you don’t want to mess with a young pitcher’s routine and in-game strategy/sequencing the way a move to the bullpen would. That means when Perez does come back up, he’ll be a starter. However, if Miami gets knocked out of playoff contention, could Perez stay in the minors? It’s all a risk, but with his talent, I think it’s a risk that’s worth taking if you have the bench space. In a redraft league, if you’re not currently tracking to win, maybe try to trade him to a leader who can afford to have him take up a bench spot.
Saves
Alexis Diaz, CIN - 3 saves
Ryan Pressly, HOU - 3 saves
Josh Hader, SD - 3 saves
Nine relievers with two saves, including David Robertson, Adbert Alzolay, Jordan Hicks, Devin Williams, and Camilo Doval.
Behind the paywall you’ll find:
Additional breakdowns on hitters and pitchers listed above
Breakdowns on prospect call-ups
Minor league leaderboards for possible hitter and pitcher stashes
Top Waiver wire hitter pick-up
Top Waiver wire pitcher pick-up
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